At the ASEAN Summit just ended this week, Indian Prime Minister Modi launched a intensive interaction with the leaders of ASEAN Ten Kingdoms.At the 21st ASEAN-India Summit held during the period, Modi also announced a ten-point plan to strengthen India-ASEAN comprehensive partnership.The two sides also passed two key documents aimed at promoting digital transformation to promote in -depth cooperation in the fields of trade, education, and small and medium -sized enterprises.
The operations of this series have made the relations with India and ASEAN become the focus of attention again. Indian media and the media of the ASEAN member states are quite ink.Indian Economic Times published an article that Indian Prime Minister Modi showed "skilled diplomatic wrist" in Laos."He particularly emphasizes the concept of the status of the ASEAN center, rather than clearly requesting the country’s" selection team ", which aims to start the process of expanding strategic partnership with Southeast Asia."
In this regard, Ning Shengnan, an associate researcher at the World Economic and Development Research Institute of the Indian International Institute of International Issues, told Peng Mei News (India has always regarded ASEAN as a passage of himself into the Asia -Pacific channel. With the rise of the "Indo -Pacific Strategy" concept, India thinks in ‘Under the Frame of India, I have more geographical strategic interests with ASEAN
Professor Long Xingchun, a professor at the School of International Relations of Sichuan University of Foreign Languages, also told Peng Mei News that for ASEAN, it does not rule out that ASEAN countries are welcomed by India’s extensive participation in regional cooperation, "because this can make the regional external forces more balanced and ASEANThe big country balance strategy that has been pursued. "Guoabong Wealth Management
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India-ASEAN trade: positive prospects and actual challenges
Before setting off to Laos, Modi posted on a social platform that India was ushered in the 10th anniversary of the "East East" policy this year., And point out the direction for future cooperation. "
When the "East -Oriented Action" policy was proposed in the early 1990s, it was originally named "Watching the Policy"Nagpur Stock. Modi renamed it in 2014 to re -revive and accelerate the efforts of India’s contact east. One of the core goals wasIt is a relationship with Southeast Asian countries.
Comprehensive "Indian News" and "Hindu" news, at the 21st ASEAN-India Summit, Modi announced a ten-point plan to strengthen India-ASEAN comprehensive partnership, covering economy, trade, digital technology, defense, humanities, humanities, humanities, and humanities.In the fields of communication and climate and environment, it aims to lay the foundation for deepening the closer partnership with ASEAN in the second decade of "eastward action".
Among them, the economic and trade cooperation between India and ASEAN has attracted much attention.The two parties jointly stated that they would accelerate the review of the ASEAN-India Trade Agreement to "make it more effective, easy to use, simple, and conducive to enterprises, and to adapt to the current global trade practice."According to the Vietnam People’s Daily, ASEAN is the fourth largest trading partner in India.The trade volume between India and ASEAN has doubled in the past ten years, and the bilateral trade volume of 2022-2023 fiscal year has reached US $ 131.5 billion.
Long Xingchun said that Southeast Asia has long been an important source of India’s attracting foreign capital and an important trading partner."Both sides have achieved a lot of achievements, great cooperation potential, and their willingness to deepen cooperation with each other."
Another statement about "promoting digital transformation" emphasizes the potential of fintech to promote the new height of the economic relations of ASEAN India.According to the Malaysia "New Strait Times" report, as the leader of the next ASEAN rotating chairman, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim emphasized at the summit to use India’s advantages in digital innovation and software development to expand market cooperationEssence
There is a good trade cooperation between Malaysia and India.Malaysia is the sixth major semiconductor exporter in the world. Indian has strong software power, and the two sides have great potential for cooperation in the semiconductor field.According to the Malaysian Agency, Anwar Ibrahim visited India in August this year.The two parties focused on the close cooperation in the digital economy and semiconductor manufacturing.The Minister of Investment, Trade and Industry, Malaysia, said that the two countries will upgrade the "Malaysia-India Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement" to comprehensively improve existing cooperation.
Data show that Malaysia is India’s third largest trading partner in ASEAN, and India ranks among the top ten trading partners in Malaysia.In 2023, Malaysia and India bilateral trade reached 16.5 billion US dollars.At the same time, the trade between Malaysia and India in 2024 is also expected to increase significantly.Minister Zafru said that Malaysia will take the improvement of the amendments to the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between ASEAN and India as the key task during the rotating chairman of the country next year.
However, while the relationship between India and ASEAN has shown huge growth potential, challenges still exist.Since 2010, the trade volume of India and ASEAN has continued to expand, but the deficit between India and ASEAN trade has also increased.The increase in imports has eroded the benefits of increasing exports, exacerbated the trade deficit, and aroused concerns from Indian policy makers and economists.
This trend is expected to continue in fiscal 2023-2024.According to the Vietnam News Agency, data from April 2023 to January 2024 showed that India exported ASEAN exports 32.713 billion US dollars, but the import volume from ASEAN countries was US $ 68.55 billion.Although India has taken measures to simplify trade procedures and adapt to some tax inversion, it still faces challenges in establishing a more balanced trade relationship with ASEAN.
Long Xingchun observed that "India and ASEAN industries are at the low -end level in the global value chain. They are also vigorously developing manufacturing, and want to attract industrial transfer in developed countries such as India, East Asia, and Europe and the United States. Therefore, India, IndiaThere are some competition with ASEAN.
Ning Shengnan also pointed out that in attracting foreign investment, India and some ASEAN countries have formed some kind of competition."For example, the manufacturing industry such as mobile phones, India and Vietnam are in the relationship between competition on the same starting line." She further analyzed, "India’s advantage is that the labor force is cheap and large in volume, and the wages are slowing down.The environment is still not as good as ASEAN countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia. "
India’s "East -Own Action" meets the "Indo -Pacific Strategy" in the United States
During this year’s ASEAN Summit, Modi not only showed how India attaches importance to the central position of ASEAN, but also repeatedly emphasized that "ASEAN is also the key to India’s ‘India -Pacific Vision’ and ‘Quartet Security Dialogue’ (Quad)."
India and ASEAN are important geographical acts in the "Indo -Pacific" region.India has always claimed to "maintain the status of the regional center of ASEAN", and the United States has repeatedly proposed to promote the "Indian -Pacific Strategy" to expand to ASEAN.
Long Xingchun told Peng Mei News, "The" Indo -Pacific Strategy ‘in the United States relies on India’s role. Japan, South Korea, and Australia are traditional American alliesAgra Investment. Walking India will make the strategic layout more ".It is clear to fight against India. In this regard, Southeast Asian countries know clearly.
"The Diplomat" magazine reported on the 14th that Modi’s opening speech at the India-ASEAN Summit said: "I believe the 21st century is the ‘Asia Century’ and the century of India and ASEAN countries.At the time of conflict, the friendship, coordination, dialogue and cooperation between India and ASEAN is crucial.
Some scholars believe that with the improvement of political mutual trust between India and Southeast Asian countries, it is expected that India will take advantage of the "Indo -Pacific Strategy" to rely on it to adopt a more aggressive attitude towards Southeast Asian policies to achieveMore extensive participation in Southeast Asia.
"Diplomat" magazine believes that although there is huge trade with India, ASEAN countries are continuing to find partners to balance India’s influence in the region. "They think India is a good hedge choice."
In this regard, Long Xingchun’s analysis stated that in order to avoid the formation of a competitive situation in Southern and American -dominated in Southeast Asia, it does not rule out that ASEAN countries are welcomed by India’s extensive participation in regional cooperation, "because this can make the region’s external forces more balanced,Consistent with ASEAN has always been pursued. "
Ning Shengnan also held a similar point of view.In her opinion, ASEAN welcomes India to participate in regional cooperation.She said, "In the current international geopolitical background, this is a rational choice of ASEAN. ASEAN is a community of Southeast Asian small nations. Whether starting from economic interests or considering international strategic interests, it requires it to continueFind a balance between the major powers. "
When talking about the plan of the 2025 rotating chairman, the chairman of the Malaysian Strategy and International Institute of Strategy and the International Issue Mohad Fayz Abdullah recently said in a public speech, "As Malaysia is about to serve as the ASEAN Chairman,Our responsibility is to balance the relationship between ASEAN and China and the United States. "
Abdullah quoted Indonesian President Plaboava’s speech at the Shangri -La Summit, emphasizing the need for the "Asian way" to solve the need for challenges in the region."It can not only solve the problem, but also maintain positive neighborhood relationships. The relationship points to the relationship with other dialogue partners such as China, South Korea, and Australia here." He specifically pointed out that "when dealing with neighboring countries, we must first first be first -firstDiscuss your own interests. "
Long Xingchun analyzed, "If India continues to actively participate in the United States ‘Indo -Pacific Strategy’ to encircle India, this is actually a dangerous act of split Asia and puts Asia into confrontation. Without benefit to ASEAN countries, India may make India politics with ASEAN politics in ASEAN.Strategic relations are gradually alienated. "
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