*Indian Institute of Economics and Political Sciences, India Institute of Economics and Political Economic Environment (CEEM), October 30, 2023-November 5, 2023
1. The Federal Reserve’s November meeting continued to suspend interest rate hikes to be observed
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting in November 2023 stated that the federal fund interest rate was 5.25-5.5%target range, which met the market mainstream expectations after the September meeting.This is also the first time that the Federal Reserve has chosen two consecutive meetings to suspend interest rate hikes.In terms of shrinkage, the Fed will maintain the original plan, passively reduced 60 billion US dollars of Treasury bonds and US $ 35 billion in institutional bonds and MBS.There are three changes in the meeting statement: when describing the speed of economic growth, the original "solid" is replaced with "strong"; when describing the trend of new employment slowdown, the original "in recent months" will be "recently".Instead of "since this year"; the description of "tightening credit conditions" is expanded into "tightening of financial and credit conditions".
2. The U.S. October Employment Excessive Hope Slows is waiting to be observed
In October, the United States added 150,000 new non -agricultural employment, which was the low point since June; the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%, the high point since January 2022, but the overall point of view is still relatively low; the labor participation rate is 62.7%, Decreased by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the average time -on salary of the labor force was 0.21%, which was lower than 0.33%of the previous January.Among them, the service industry is the main contribution of new employment; the manufacturing industry is the main drag, which reflects the slowdown of employment caused by strike.The service industry added 110,000 new employment, contributing 73.3%of the new employment; 51,000 new employment of government departments, contributing 34.0%of the new employment; the manufacturing industry’s employment decreased by 35,000.In addition, the September data of the new non -agricultural employment was repaired from 336,000 to 297,000, and the August data was repaired from 227,000 to 165,000.
3. The euro zone has shrunk by 0.1% from the previous quarter to observe
Preliminary data released by the European Union Statistical Bureau on October 31 shows that after the seasonal adjustment, the GDP of the euro zone in the third quarter of this year has shrunk by 0.1%month -on -month, and the EU GDP increased by 0.1%month -on -month.From the perspective of the country, in the third quarter, the European Union’s largest economy’s German GDP shrank 0.1%month -on -month, and the French and Spanish GDP increased by 0.1%and 0.3%respectively.And 0.3%.The data also shows that the GDP of the euro zone in the second quarter increased by 0.2%month -on -month, and the EU GDP increased from the previous month.In addition, after the seasonal adjustment, the euro zone and the EU GDP averaged 0.1%year -on -year, and the second quarter increased by 0.5%and 0.4%year -on -year, respectively.
Belt Colene, a senior economist at the Dutch International Group, said that from the third quarter of GDP data, the euro zone economy may occur in the second half of this year.Continuous economic and geopolitical uncertainty and impact of interest rate hikes will put pressure on economic activities in the next few quarters.
4. The inflation rate in the euro zone has fallen to the lowest level in October for more than two years.
Preliminary statistics released by the European Union Statistical Bureau on October 31 show that due to the decline in energy prices and the impact of the European Central Bank’s interest rate hike, the inflation rate in the euro zone was calculated at 2.9%at an annual rate of October, lower than 4.3%in September, and fell to two years to two years.Come to the lowest level.
Data show that the price of food, and tobacco and alcohol in the euro area in October rose 7.5%year -on -year, the prices of non -energy industrial products rose 3.5%, service prices rose 4.6%, and energy prices fell 11.1%.In the month, the core inflation rate of excluding energy, food, and tobacco and alcohol was 4.2%.
From the perspective of countries, the inflation rates in October, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain in major EU EUs were 3.0%, 4.5%, 1.9%, and 3.5%, respectively.
After 10 consecutive interest rate hikes, the European Central Bank decided to maintain the three key interest rates at a monetary policy conference held on October 26.Analysts believe that this is a reaction to the decline in the inflation rate of the euro zone and the current market uncertainty. The possibility of further interest rate hikes in the euro zone will not soon cut interest rates.
The European Central Bank governor Lagarde said that due to previous interest rate hikes, the euro zone economy may continue to weaken during the year, and it is expected that the impact of interest rate hikes will last at least until the first quarter of 2024.
5. The Japanese government launches an economic stimulus plan to be observed
The total scale of the Japanese economic stimulus plan is expected to be approximately 37.4 trillion yen, including 21.8 trillion yen expenditure.The additional budget will provide 13 trillion yen funds for the plan.
6. India’s October manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5% to be observedKolkata Stocks
In October, India ’s manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and fell to the contraction range.Among them, large enterprise PMI continues to be higher than the critical point.In October, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.7%, which continued to be located in the expansion range, especially its production index and new order index were higher than the critical point, and the production demand for enterprises was relatively stable.0.9 and 0.1 percentage points decreased by last month, and the level of prosperity fell.
7Jaipur Investment. India’s stricter information disclosure policy for foreign investors is to be observed
According to the British "Financial Times" reported on November 1, the Indian Securities and Exchange Commission will implement stricter information disclosure policies for foreign investors holding a large number of local enterprises in India in order to increase the transparency of the Indian financial market.
It is reported that India’s law stipulates that at least 25%of listed companies shall be held by the public.Some foreign investors control funds through shell companies to avoid the minimum public shareholding requirements and affect the stock price.In January of this year, India’s Adida Group was "shorted" by the US Xingdengbao Research Company, which caused a shock in the Indian stock market.The Supreme Court of India requires the Indian Securities Exchange Commission to conduct an investigation to understand whether the group violates the requirements of at least 25%of the public’s shares and relevant transaction disclosure regulations. The review is still ongoing.
8. International oil prices fell again to be observed
Last Friday, the international oil price fell sharply again, completely exhausting the increase in Thursday, and continued to refresh the low point after the geopolitical conflict. The second week of consecutive weeks closed down.After the risk premium of Palestinian Palestinian conflict faded, signs of weak demand emerged again.
9. One week’s RMB trend
In the past week, the price of the RMB to the US dollar exchange rate has remained at 7.3075-7.3182, which has remained stable overall.CNY and CNH developed in staggered, and the opening price of the CNY was higher than the development of the middle price.
Data source: wind information
(Source of information: Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Reuters, Dow Jones News Agency, Bloomberg, Wall Street News, Xinhua News Agency, Indian Securities News, Economic Observation News, Ministry of Commerce, World Trade Organization, etc.)
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